Reporter’s Notebook: How Congress his gaze was not one, but two shutdowns

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It is never too early, to avoid the next government shutdown. Or the next debt ceiling crisis. Especially if:

  • The Federal government were recently faced three shutdowns in a little more than 15 months (even if only for a few hours).
  • President Trump threatened to veto spending measures twice, after everyone thought they had a deal.
  • Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to Fund advanced a measure through the Senate, which put the government around Christmas in front of Trump and the house Republicans in a fire.
  • The battle over immigration policy and the construction of a border wall remains one of the most epic cloud of the American political landscape, threatening, with 19 months to go before the next presidential elections.

So it should not surprise anyone that McConnell announced earlier this month that he had the opportunity to be discussed, a broad non-partisan, two-chamber system, two-year, expenses-arrangement with Trump and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

“I hope this will be the beginning of a cross-party agreement that will be necessary to have an orderly appropriations process, not only this year but also next year,” said McConnell at the time.


McConnell knows the debate about the border remains, with Trump and many congressional Republicans are pushing for additional wall-financing. Not only is he concerned about the prospect of a further shutdown-Oct. 1, the beginning of the new fiscal year and, if the current round of funding runs out, but a second shutdown on Oct. 1, 2020, just before the presidential election.

The chances of another shutdown are high, when you consider that Trump went to the Congress, a national emergency, to Marshal money for the border wall. The courts determine whether the maneuver was constitutional, but the President strengthened the action alone, the chances of another shutdown. To not overwrite the possibility of still further expanded after the Congress Trump’s veto to stop a measure, the national state of emergency.

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McConnell felt burned by the President, after he say forged ahead with a government spending plan in December, only to be Trump, then speaker of the house of representatives Paul Ryan, R-Wis., he would not, under the package write. Thus, according to the congressional leaders in mid-February offer made to run by the government this fall, McConnell took to the floor to publicly announce that Trump’s intention to sign the measure. McConnell move, not locked up in the President, so he will try to renege. McConnell understands that Trump is fickle and fleeting approach to governance. The President dumped McConnell and Ryan under the bus, while a 2017 Oval Office meeting in favor of the spending gambit pushed by Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-NY Smarter for the experience, McConnell white, the best bet is to secure broad, long-term buy-in from the White house and Congress on a topline spending measure to avoid possible shutdowns – pre-empting Trump the incessant vibrations.

Let us examine what exactly is at stake. You can listen to these negotiations, referred to rhetorically as “cap business.” This refers to an effort to establish the total amount of spending caps for discretionary spending (read: nothing, but the permissions) for the fiscal years 2020 and 2021. The “caps” you will find a series of mandatory spending restrictions (also known as sequestration), which the U.S. Congress had, as part of the debt ceiling agreement in 2011. The goal is to make everyone happy, as long as you topline accord for all expenses for the removal of the caps. The advantage for Trump and many Republicans? The military spending, and some additional money for a border wall. The advantage for the Democrats? More spending on everything else.

Debt and deficits? You forget about it.


Sure, some tax-can rest against a conservative Blue Dog Democrats as fiscal conservatives such as Sens. Rand Paul, R-Ky., and Mike Lee, R-Utah. But the key here is the right mix of Democrats and Republicans. In “divided government” leaders must secure buy-in from both sides and both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. But remember, these are the talks focused on pay the total expenditure, non-specific means. A dispute over the latter is what led to the monstrous government shutdown in December and January.

House Democrats drew criticism from two weeks ago, when they moved their budget blueprint to the floor, because they adopt the necessary votes to you as dissenting voices split the group. House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., Fox said, that, if the budget (the only sets broad expenditure guidelines, and not binding) “critical … I think Nancy Pelosi), and I would have passed it.”

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Hoyer noted that the discussions with the administration, and McConnell are more “material.” This is not true. The budget house Democrats approve, was just a wish list, similar to how President Trump the budget in the winter. So, if the sides of caps, an agreement on the expenditure that would, in theory, make it easier, the hard part is medium.

Here’s the Problem with the sequestration caps – sequestration is always the military hits the most difficult, because the Congress spends on the Pentagon. Sequestration limits the Pentagon to $576 billion for fiscal year 2020, and to impose could be a cut of $71 billion for defense next year and $55 billion for non-military programs.


Trump and defense hawks want more money for the military. So, if you get a “caps-offer,” and cancel sequestration, you can spend a lot more. Of course, the deal with Democrats in Congress to eliminate sequestration caps on non-defense spending.

Although the house failed to adopt a budget this week, Democrats set an overall discretionary spending figure (which includes all 12 appropriations bills) € 1.295 trillion for the year 2020. This includes non-discretionary spending, spending that includes entitlement.

Trumpf-2020-budget proposal seeks $2.7 T in spending cuts, $8.6 B for the new border wall

The White house hopes to engage the Democrats in your top budget priorities in an effort to find a common basis; Kevin cork cancels the proposal.

But here’s the policy: Both sides believe it when she hikes the President on Board with the defense, he could sign on other Democratic priorities. And if both houses of Congress are behind the plan, Trump could agree and operation to avoid interruptions.

The gambit would be the establishment of new spending caps for the remainder of the presidential term, drastically reduces the probability of downtime is reduced during baking in a debt-to increase the limit. You could also forge a deal on an additional spending bill to cover a variety of natural disasters, from Puerto Rico to flooding in the Midwest of the USA. A GOP plan to deal with natural disasters has stalled in the Senate.


“If we can come to agreement with the Senate, the burden of proof on the White house,” said House Budget Committee Chairman John Yarmuth, D-Ky. “There is no way to [Trump], it can away explain. If he wants [the responsibility of the shutdown], it is on his shoulders.”

Pelosi and Schumer are scheduled to the White house on Tuesday to discuss a possible infrastructure planning with trump. The last time, Pelosi and Schumer huddled with the President in the Oval Office, sparks flew as the leaders verbally sparred with each other on live TV. The Conclave is one of the most memorable episodes of the Trump presidency. This tableau similar fight could stimulate, even if it is the issue of infrastructure. The boundary wall dispute-and immigration policy, a flashpoint as long as this President is in office and will not be settled by there is no upper limits of agreement.

This is the reason why many who want to get started on a spending arrangement now. You know that the next round of confrontations over the wall, could be much more intense than the last.

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