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On Warren’s inevitability, and other wishful thinking

in the vicinityVideoSen. Elizabeth Warren reveals plan to crack down on corruption

Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren’s proposal includes the creation of the office of Public integrity to investigate ethics complaints and impose civil and administrative penalties on violators and violations relating to the judiciary for prosecution; Peter Doocy reports from Galivants Ferry, South Carolina.

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On the roster: On Warren’s inevitability and other wishful thinking – Sanders’ stumbles unrest key-pendant – Trump gambles everything on blue collar white voters – McConnell Trump says the first to go on gun laws – Churn down for what

ON WARREN’S INEVITABILITY, AND OTHER WISHFUL THINKING
The conventional wisdom on the democratic nomination process, once melted and spicy crockpot queso, cooled down quickly and solidified to a new narrative.

Old and busted: any number of Democrats to beat Joe Biden.

The new Hotness: Elizabeth Warren beat Joe Biden.

A WSJ/NBC News poll shows today, certainly, as Warren has done, climbed from 19 percent in July to 25 percent today. This is so impressive, well, as Kamala Harris‘ decline of 13 per cent to 5 per cent, is impressive bad.

But the real story in the poll is that the leader Biden, it actually managed to increase its vote share according to what has been said, a very bad summer for him. Biden, the Elevator was as large as Warren climbed from 25 to 31 percent.

Then why are we reading about Biden, the third most likely candidate to win the nomination, behind even Bernie Sanders , who could not even get the job done in a solo game four years ago against the weakest democratic candidate since Michael Dukakis?

Much as political analysts have in 2016 with Donald Trump and the Republicans are strong, you are now working under the assumption that Biden will not be able to win. Instead of attention to the performance of the front-runner, the gaze is fixed on the incremental changes among those behind him.

This is stupid for a few reasons.

First of all, there is no evidence to support the assertion. Now, we tend to believe that the political analysis these days is overly dependent on data, but we would like to see at least some of the facts for the alleged impossibility of a Biden victory. Every week, we have said Biden was the wreck of the Hesperus, but each week, everything he does, is sailing under a Sunny sky.

Secondly, even if we were to grant the assumption that Biden was ultimately doomed to failure, how would we then assume that the rest of the field would remain static in the Wake of such a catastrophic error?

There are many reasons people support Biden, we are sure, but we are equally certain that many of his supporters are going to block in an effort, Sanders and Warren out of the nomination. The perceived danger of a radical liberal candidate, is widespread among the Democrats.

Biden is not Beto O’rourke. To slip if the 76-year-old former Vice-President to start his third presidential campaign in the polls and not following Warren, it is plausible to think that he would like O’rourke, to some kind of zombie-effort. His main would leave the men behind him, and his would love, lean hard on the idea, with his dignity intact.

So, where would go to all this support? Not Warren, and not at all to Sanders. That is why candidates like Amy Klobuchar, Cory Booker , and Pete Buttigieg hang around. Like the small mammals, the dinosaurs wiped out flourished after the meteor impact, also you could find the advantages in the downfall of their ecosystem’s megafauna.

Our huddle was all, we would like to remind you that, in the race, watchers are circumspect of how future events will unfold.

It is true that Biden can’t go the distance, but now he has more than proven itself as permanently in the top group. It’s fun to imagine what could happen in the future, but it is only that: an introduction.
 
THE RULES: IT TAKES TWO KEYS TO START
“It must indeed be clear to a demonstration that the joint possession of the power in question, by the President and Senate, would have a greater prospect of security, than the separate possession of one of them.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 75

TIME OUT: HOW FIRM A FOUNDATION
Story: “On September 18, 1793, George Washington lays the cornerstone for the United States Capitol building, the seat of the legislative branch of American government. The building would take to complete, almost a century, as architects came and went, the British set fire to it, and it was in the civil war. Today, the Capitol building, with its famous cast-iron dome and important collection of American art, is part of the Capitol complex, which includes six Congressional office buildings and three Library of Congress buildings, all developed in the 19th and 20th centuries. As a young nation, the United States has no permanent capital, and Congress met in eight different cities, including Baltimore, New York and Philadelphia, before 1791. In 1790 Congress passed the residence act, which gave President Washington the power to select a permanent home for the Federal government. In the following year, he decided to for what the District of Columbia from land provided by Maryland.”

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INDICATOR
DEMOCRATIC 2020-POWER-RANKING
Biden: 28.8 Points
Warren: 20,8 Points
Sanders: 15.4 Points
Harris: 6.6 Points
Buttigieg: 5.4 Points
[Averages NBC News/WSJ, CNN, ABC News/WaPo, IBD, and Quinnipiac University include:.]

TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average Level Of Agreement: 40 Percent
The average of the rejection: 54.8 percent
Net Rating: -14.8 Per Cent
Change from a week ago: no change in points
[Average, includes: NPR/PBS/Marist: 41% approve, reject – 54%; CNN: 42% approve – 54% disapprove; ABC News/WaPo: 40% approve – 55% lean; IBD: 39% approve – 55% lean; Quinnipiac University: 38% approve, reject 56%.]

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SANDERS’ STUMBLES UNREST KEY CHAIN
Politico: “Some of Bernie Sanders‘ fiercest advocates are alarmed that the campaign is bogged down by disorganization, personality conflicts and poor communication between the state-owned enterprises and national headquarters. After a few setbacks this week — the bitter shakeup of his staff in New Hampshire on Sunday, and the loss of working-families-party support to Elizabeth Warren, a day later, Sanders’ allies and former aides are concerned that the recent disappointments are not one-off trips but more typical of larger problems in his bid for the White house. The concerns are particularly acute in New Hampshire. … The worries come as the campaign in a critical and urgent stage. … “In the year 2016, Bernie was the David, the Goliath to beat in New Hampshire — the expectations this time are incomparable,” said Andrew Feldman, a democratic strategist with close ties to labor groups.”

Warren tries to beat Trump at his own game – WaPo: “The battle raged as a trump card to make and fret about quantity, size, boast, advertise, and sometimes, inflating its own adoring crowds at campaign events and presidential events. To ignore then, finally, this week, the Democrats— who have long tried to Trump’s bigger-is-better ethos — offered a concrete answer on their own in the form of Elizabeth Warren’s Monday night rally in New York City, Washington Square Park, where the senator from Massachusetts, showed that they, too, were the spectacle of Trump, to the huge, cheering crowd. “Yes, the lines getting longer and longer,’ Warren told reporters in New York on Tuesday, when he said about the four-hour waiting time for photos with her of the cancellation of their Monday rally, which was attended by more than 20,000 people. “This is a good thing!'”

Can Dems play in Arizona? – Politico: “Arizona has long been touted as a potential swing state in presidential elections. His time finally came. The demographic shifts, progressive, organized efforts, and President Donald Trump‘s potential weakness in the state seem to be, it offers Democrats in the year 2020 with your best shot on the state, since Bill Clinton won it more than two decades ago. A new poll commissioned by a state Union and released today, shows the trumps are running neck-and-neck with Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden in the theoretical match-ups. The survey follows several other recent polls, more bad news for the Republicans. A the end of July-the survey — carried out by trump’s own pollster showed the President to lose, Biden, and another in August reported a draw. In Arizona will be closely observed, in 2020, the U.S. Senate race, two of these polls show GOP Sen. Martha McSally , in a tie, and a third shows her trailing Democrat Mark Kelly.”

TRUMP GAMBLES EVERYTHING ON BLUE COLLAR White VOTERS
Politico: “The trombone campaign to seize the hope that this kind of discomfort in the case of the dissatisfied employees — whether miners, or striking General Motors employees in his bid for re-election. The President was Reagan-such as support with blue-collar workers in 2016, but the union dominate the vote in next fall to compensate for the s-slump, he already Now he is banking on a strong economy to do that … even if many of the workers who he is after suffering a manufacturing slowdown under the weight of its trade war. If Trump fails, the Nato States fear to his popularity in the rust belt will become brittle, and initiates a cascade of damage across the industrial Midwest, that can only be offset by wins in Florida and an unusual collection of traditional blue States.”

Thomas Edsall: Change in fundraising changed parties – NYT: “money is the mother’s milk of politics, as the old proverb says, and the slow-motion realignment of our two major political parties has changed, the raises more money from the rich, and anyone who raises more from small donors. A couple of important developments give us an indication of how future trends evolve, the domestic field of battle. First: Heading into the 2020 election, President Trump is on the way to a far surpassing President Barack Obama‘s record in collecting small-donor contributions — those under 200 Dollar loans weight to his claim to populist legitimacy. Secondly, democratic candidates and their party committees are on the rise in the collection of contributions from the richest of the rich, the Forbes 400, a once-solid Republican constituency. Democrats are also pulling in contributions from highly educated professionals — doctors, lawyers, tech executives, software engineers, architects, scientists, teachers and so on.”

MCCONNELL SAYS TRUMP HAS TO GO FIRST ON GUN LAWS
AP: “Six weeks to a couple of mass shootings killed more than 30 people, Congress remains” in a queue ” on gun ownership as legislators expect proposals from the White house, the Senate majority Leader Mitch McConnell said. While President Donald Trump, he would have said, veto a house bill passed to expand background checks for gun purchases, McConnell said Tuesday he is hopeful, there are also other gun-related proposals that the Congress can approve and Trump support. ‘I still wait for leadership from the White house, what (trump) thinks he’s probably signing,” the Kentucky Republican told reporters. “If and when that happens, then we have a real opportunity to actually change laws and hopefully make some progress.’ Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said McConnell and Trump had been blocked meaningful action on gun violence… Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, warned Trump on Sunday that a proposal on gun control need, the house-passed bill to expand background checks.”

Sinema faces blowback from home-state-liberal moderate attitudes – Fox News: “U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema can in front of a censorship by a vote of the Arizona democratic party, because she votes too often in favor of the President of the Trump agenda, according to a report. Since joining the Senate in January, Sinema against Trump 81 percent of the time, The Arizona Republic reported, citing data from the FiveThirtyEight Trump Tracker. This is, apparently, not often enough, many of your fellow Democrats in the Grand Canyon State. ‘Here’s the thing: We support Kyrsten Sinema, we want you to succeed, we want you to be the best senator in the country,’ by Dan O’neal, state coordinator for the Progressive Democrats of America, told the Republic. ‘But the way the vote is really disappointing. We want to vote the Democrats as the Democrats and not the Republicans.’ Sinema moderate voting record has helped her gain some GOP support in the state, according to the newspaper, but several voices, in particular, riled to have progressive Democrats.”

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Pelosi-Nadler charge battle continues – Politically

Fellow mayor plump for Buttigieg – USA Today

AUDIBLE: CAN WE CALL IT THAT?
“I have no obligation to be honest with the media.” – Corey Lewandowski, the former trump-campaign-manager that is now a Senate race in New Hampshire, in the hearing before the House Judiciary Committee

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CHURN DOWN FOR WHAT
KGW8: “police are looking for two men fleeing a traffic stop with an Amish buggy equipped with a stereo system. A Deputy in Trumbull County, Ohio, reported that two Amish-drinking men, as they rode on the back of the buggy early on Sunday. If the officer saw a 12-pack of Michelob Ultra on the back of the buggy, he tried to pull on him. The men fled and ran into the forest and that during the horse, the buggy, before finally coming to a stop, WFMJ reports. In the investigation of the buggy, the Deputy several open containers of alcohol and a “radio-sound-system found” that some of the great speakers. The Deputy called about the car speaker for the men to come forward, but no one came out of the forest. The buggy was towed, and the horse will be maintained for the claims of a local, to someone in the animal.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Any spying program is a compromise between freedom and security. Yet [Obama] is a President, sat down on the statement that he would transcend such pedestrian considerations.” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writes in the Washington Post on June 13, 2013.

Chris Stirewalt , the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. FOX News mid-term report in your Inbox every day wants? You can register here.

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