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On scandals and elections in the era of Trump

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Rep. Chris Collins: The allegations against me are meritless

New York Congressman Chris Collins addresses insider-trading charges.

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On the roster: On scandals and elections in the era of Trump – I’ll Tell you What: The swampiest swamp you can catch swamp – Fox News Power Rankings: 11 race shift to the left – Mueller-team files complaint against Manafort judges-all of them IRL

ON SCANDALS AND ELECTIONS IN THE ERA OF TRUMP
FiveThirtyEight: “In the era of President Trump, it’s become fashionable to assume that the politicians can do what they like and get away with it. But if you are the last elections to the Congress no instructions, scandals have large and measurable effects. So, if U.S. Rep. Chris Collins, the Republican from New York, 27th constituency, was arrested on insider-trading charges on Wednesday morning, she took a seat, she looked fairly safe for the Republicans and put it in the competition category. … On average, the scandal-ridden incumbent … won re-election by 21.5 percentage points! But that’s quite a bit worse than the predicted margin of victory, which was 30.5 percent. The net effect of the scandal to 9 points. … (There is no evidence that the effect of scandals on the decline, in the last elections, which, if anything, is slightly increased over the course of the data.) In addition, the effect of scandals is potentially mobilise larger in competitive districts in which the other party has the opportunity to be a real alternative.

Let us in New York, 27th constituency as a dividing line, for example. It has a five thirty eight partisans of the R +22 lean, meaning that there are 22 points more Republican than the country as a whole on the Basis of its voters in the last presidential and state parliamentary elections. The Art district is normally quite safe, but is just on the edge of what could be competitive if everything is right for the opposing party — breaks, for example, in the case of an election in a wave year against a candidate who was just arrested by the FBI. In the districts less competitive than the NY-27, scandals cost the operators only 4 percentage points, on average. But in the districts were as a performance or competition is developing more capable than the NY-27, candidates with scandal-subjects worse than their bases by an average of almost 13 points.

The Collins – race, a throw-up? You might be a little mental math: If the scandal will cost him 13 percentage points, and the national environment favors Democrats by 6 points, could produce a 19-point swing in the direction of Collins ‘ Democratic opponent, Nate McMurray — almost enough to offset the strong Republican lean of the district. But she would have to leave one thing: Collins is still an incumbent, and public officials generally exceed the partisan lean of their districts.”

THE RULES: THANKS GUYS!
“The friends and adversaries of the plan of the Convention, if on nothing else, agree at least in the value they on the trial by jury; or if there is any difference between them it consists in this: the former regard it as a valuable protection to liberty; the latter represent it as the very palladium of free government.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 83

TIME-OUT: TWINKLE, TWINKLE
Time: “This year’s Perseid meteor shower will be visible, also on Saturday and Sunday night, observers plenty of opportunity to spot any amount of shooting stars. “The Perseids are perhaps the best-known meteor shower, because … the weather is so much more than is possible in the colder autumn or winter,” Dr. Jacqueline Faherty, an astrophysicist at the American Museum of Natural History, told TIME. This Perseid meteor shower during a new moon—that means that it will not interfere with the show, and it is expected to be the best meteor shower this year. … The Perseids is held every year between July 17 and Aug. 24. The Perseid meteor shower peak will happen from Aug. 11-13 with the night of Aug. 12-13 expected to observe the best time, according to Faherty. Stargazers should be able to see 60-70 meteors per hour during the two peak nights.”

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INDICATOR
Trump job performance
Average Approval:
41.2 Percent
The average of the rejection:
53%
Net Rating:
-11.8 Points
Change from a week ago:
0.4 points
[On average contains: Gallup: 41% approve – 54% lean; IBD: 41% approve – 50% refuse; NPR/PBS/Marist: 41% approve – 51% oppose; Quinnipiac University: 38% approve – 58% lean; NBC/WSJ: 45% approve – 52% disapprove.]

Control of the house
Republican Average:
41.4 Percent
Democratic Average: 48 Percent
Advantage:
Democrats plus 6.6 points
Change from a week ago:
the democratic advantage is minus 1.6 points
[On average contains: IBD: 45% Dems, 45% of GOP; NPR/PBS/Marist: 47% Dems and 40% GOP; Quinnipiac University: 51% Dems, 39% of GOP; NBC/WSJ: 49% Dems 43% GOP; Fox News: 48% Dems and 40% GOP.]
I’LL TELL YOU WHAT: THE SWAMPIEST SWAMP YOU SWAMP
A holiday Chris Stirewalt joins Dana Perino to discuss the special election, the OH-12, Washington’s top-two primary and Missourians refusal, a right-to-work law. Plus, Dana keeps the compilation and Chris answers to easy trivia.
LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE HERE

FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: 11 RACE SHIFT TO THE LEFT
Fox News: “What are the major midterm races through the balance of power in the Congress; analysis of Colin Reed, senior vice president of the Definers of Public Affairs, and Dave Brown, the democratic strategist.”

[Ed. Note: Brianna here! With Chris on vacation, we are not able to go his usual analysis with our changes, but we have a clip from The “Daily Briefing with Dana Perino,” we hope that you will enjoy, instead. As always, you can get all of the 2018 Power Rankings on our website.]

Kobach’s lead is cut in half – AP: “Kansas Secretary of state Kris Kobach‘s lead over Gov. Jeff Colyer in the Republican primary has shrunk to only 91 votes, after election officials discovered a mistake in the listing for a County, the results to the state counting of the votes. The lead is miniscule compared with the 311,000 votes cast. The final, unofficial results posted on the Secretary of state’s website show, Kobach Thomas County in Northwest Kansas win, with 466 votes Colyer’s 422. But the record written by the Thomas County clerk’s office, Colyer shows with 522 votes, or 100 votes for him, a number which the clerk confirmed to The Associated Press on Thursday. Bryan Caskey, state elections director, said County officials pointed to the discrepancy Thursday after a routine request for a post-election check of the numbers to the counties by the secretary of state’s office. County election have asked the officials not yet finished counting late-arriving mail-in ballots, or provisional ballots available to voters at the polls, when your permission is not clear.”

Uncounted votes discovered in Ohio special race – Fox News: “The nail-biter games in Ohio 12 constituency got even closer Wednesday to 588 uncounted votes were in a suburb of Columbus, according to County officials. The ballots were counted and Democrat Danny O’connor won by 190 votes to Republican Troy Balderson. The GOP candidate who was supported by President Trump, currently leads from 1,564 votes. The Franklin County Board of elections said in a press release that the newly-discovered ballots were not ‘processed in the evaluation system, and the Problem was fixed. O’connor, of Franklin County, celebrated the news, tweeting the red sirens and informed his followers that he is confident that he soon explained the winner. He asked for donations to fight more that the votes are ” counted Fair.'”

A Kansas congressional candidate could make history – Fox News: “With Congress-primary-victory, Sharice Davids is a step closer is to make history if she wins in November, you’ll be the first lesbian Native American woman ever in Congress elected. David, 38, beat the other five Kansas Democratic primaries for Congress in the 3rd congressional district. She will face incumbent Republican Kevin Yoder in the fall. “The fact that we will see in 2018, and we are still, all of these premieres mind-boggling to me,’ David told The Guardian. “If I stop and think about it, it is a part of this movement, makes me very proud is happening in our country. I feel like we all have a role to play.” “This unprecedented number of women running for office – me and a couple of other candidates, the local women are – makes me very proud,” she added. David is a member of the Ho-Chunk Nation, a tribe of native American people in Wisconsin.”

Rashida Tlaib is poised to be the first Muslim woman in the Congress voted – Fox News: “Former state REP Rashida Tlaib won the Democratic primary for Michigan’s 13th district, setting her up to be the first Muslim woman in the Congress voted. Tlaib beat out a crowded field of Democrats to replace Rep. John Conyers, the 89-year-old Democrat, who retired in December, citing health reasons. Conyers, who was made the longest serving members of Congress, the decision to step down just weeks after several sexual harassment allegations surfaced. “I the people would not know around the country that you need to sell,’ Tlaib supporters early Wednesday morning, said, according to The New York Times. ‘You don’t have to change who you are, run for office – and that is what this country is about.’ No Republicans or third-party Challenger ran in the election, which means you will be without opposition for the seat in November.”

Nevada pimp to run for the state loses a brothel license –
Fox News: “Dennis Hof, the notorious pimp and Nevada state Assembly candidate, compared himself to President Trump has officially lost his brothel license. Nye County officials voted on Tuesday, final court-license tear, after he is not for an extension or payment of fees, for the love Ranch brothel, about 80 miles Northwest of Las Vegas. After the vote, the police received a search warrant and seized the love Ranch-licences and prostitutes ” required cards, without confrontation.”

MÜLLER TEAM FILES COMPLAINT AGAINST MANAFORT JUDGE
Fox News: “After days dressed down by the judge, the supervision of Paul Manafort case, prosecutors sought Thursday to put their foot down — the filing of a motion complains that judge T. S. Ellis III had been wrong to admonish you before the jury. Ellis has the most memorable and repeatedly criticized Special Counsel Robert Mueller‘s team during the study for the former trump campaign chairman. On Wednesday, Ellis crack in the prosecution, that a witness, IRS Agent Michael Welsh, sitting in the courtroom before his testimony. But in a five-page motion filed Thursday, Mueller’s Deputy , Andrew Weissmann and the other lawyers on the team claimed Ellis had actually given permission for, earlier in the trial for the witness stay in the room during the procedure. ‘The court, the complaint of the government Council proposed to the jury—incorrectly— that the government acted wrongly and in contempt of the court rules,” the Prosecutor wrote. ‘This is a prejudice, should be healed.’ Ellis responded with regret in court on Thursday.”

The judgment of the judge: watch your words – This week, Fox News Senior judicial Analyst judge Andrew Napolitano explains why the President should not voluntarily talk to Müller: “[Trump] has said countless times that he wants to talk Müller. But President Trump do not use an economy of words. The experience teaches that the undisciplined use of the words by the subject of a criminal investigation, the Prosecutor dream is, if it takes place in an official request. It’s Giuliani’s to prevent the task that the dream and the reality, by its customers, perhaps through an aggressive mock-question-and-answer session conducted by Giuliani himself, that’s not good for Trump from a Miller-interview. I have seen many criminal cases in which a potential defendant who thought they could talk to the prosecutors of an indictment tried to do this and made things even worse for yourself.” More here.

PLAY-BY-PLAY
Pence unveiled the plan to build a “Space Force” as a branch of the US military – WaPo

Kavanaugh documents from the Bush White house made public – AP

Report: Former apprentice star Omarosa Manigault-Newman secretly recorded Trump – the Daily Beast

Charlottesville, DC, to prepare the anniversary of the violent rally – Fox News

AUDIBLE: THIS IS DEEP
“THE COURT: Mr. Rabin, may I ask you, please, to speak? THE WITNESS: Yes, sir. THE COURT: My hearing is not what it once was. THE WITNESS: I understand. Mine, too. THE COURT: Nothing is what it once was.” – A Zen moment from the Manafort negotiation between judge T. S. Ellis III and Democratic admaker Daniel Rabin.

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YOU CAN CATCH ALL OF THE IRL

BBC: “If you’re going to catch them all, you must have the correct kit. Grandfather Chen San-yuan manipulated has 11 smart-phones on his Bicycle to play, the augmented reality game, Pokémon Go. He plans to have four more. The Taiwanese, affectionately known as uncle Pokémon, learned the game from his grandchildren, and can up to 20 hours at a stretch before he runs out of battery power for his devices. He is currently spends more than £1,000 ($1,290) a month on his habit. Mr. Chen used the portable battery packs to power his multiple devices, which allows him to stay out late at night to catch Pokémon in the capital, Taipei. He was unaware of its popularity until in the Taiwanese news channel EXP.GG found him and asked him to play when he was only nine mobile phones.”

AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“Every democracy needs an opposition press. We damn well have one now.” – Charles Krauthammer , writing in the Washington Post, 23. In March 2017.

Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. FOX News mid-term report in your Inbox every day wants? Sign up here.

This article was written by Fox News employees.

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