IVF calculator can help predict the chance of having a baby


A new calculator can help couples see their chances of success in vitro fertilization (IVF) before they start the treatment, a recent study suggests.

Doctors have traditionally been reluctant to predict couples’ chances of having a baby before they are at least one cycle of IVF, so clinicians for the assessment of the quality of the oocytes, sperm and embryos, in addition to individual characteristics, such as age, weight and medical conditions.

With the new pre-treatment calculator, however, women can get an estimate of their chances before the first cycle of IVF and it can be adjusted on the basis of what doctors discover after that cycle is completed, said lead study author Dr. David McLernon, from the University of Aberdeen in the united kingdom

“I don’t think the women would want to undergo their first cycle of IVF just on their opportunities in the future cycles – I think that their goal would be to have a baby in that first attempt,” McLernon said by e-mail.

For the current study, the researchers examined the data on 113,873 women with 184,269 full IVF cycles.

Overall, 29 percent of the women had a baby after a bike-and 43 percent delivered a baby after six cycles, the researchers report in The BMJ.

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Age was a pre-treatment indicator of the chances of success. Women who were 31 years old before the first cycle of IVF 66 percent more likely to have a baby than women who were 37 years old, for example.

The number of years couples experienced infertility before you try IVF also factored into their chances of success for the treatment. Couples were 9 percent more likely to have a baby after three years of infertility after six years.

Once IVF started, factors that affect the chance of success included the woman’s age, the number of eggs retrieved in the cycle, or the eggs were frozen and how to develop the embryos before they are transferred from the lab into the uterus of the woman.

A larger number of eggs produced in a cycle is increased the chance of success up to 13 eggs, but more than that may mean a lower quality of the eggs, and the lower chances of having a baby, the study found.

The combination of all these factors, the researchers calculate that for a treatment, a 30-year-old woman with two years of unexplained infertility has a 46 percent chance of a baby after a cycle of IVF and 79 per cent chance of success for more than three full cycles.

IVF can be a steep emotional and financial damage of the pairs, and the calculator can’t be any factor that can influence whether a particular cycle of the treatment results in a baby, the authors caution.

It is also possible that a number of factors not included in the calculator can still have an impact on the chances of success for a particular patient, noted Judy Stern, a researcher in obstetrics at Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center in Lebanon, New Hampshire.

“To the extent that the patient understands that the success, realizes that it is ONLY AN ESTIMATE, and understand that other factors not included in the model can affect the outcome, it can be useful,” Stern, who was not involved in the study, said by e-mail.

“It can also be a false hope or lack of hope) and so it is important that patients thoroughly discuss these rates and their specific situation with their suppliers, Stern said.

With the calculator in the study has a number of advantages compared to one of the Society for Assisted Reproductive Technology (SART) that many doctors currently, said Dr. Kevin Doody, SART-president and a researcher at the University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center in Dallas.

SART Patient Predictor’s” calculator (available here: only goes up to three cycles and not are a number of factors related to frozen embryos, Doody said by e-mail.

At the same time, in the current study is “OPIS” calculator (available here: not predicting success on the basis of the number of embryos transferred or to examine the risk of twins, the things, the SART calculator does, Doody said.

“These models are great in that they show that the success with IVF can be quite high, but some women will need to take several cycles,” Doody said.

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