GOP endangered species in California as a key stronghold of blue

A statue of former President Ronald Reagan stands in front of a house in Orange County is Balboa Island. Oct. 20, 2018 in Newport Beach, California. (Photo by Mario Tama/Getty Images)

Former President Ronald Regan said in his 1984 re-election campaign, the Southern California, Orange County is the place where “good Republicans go to die.”

For decades, the wealthy, suburban county, approximately 20 miles South of downtown Los Angeles – was a stronghold of the conservatives, in a state that is increasingly liberal But since the 2018 midterm elections, the so-called “Orange curtain” came down, and Democrats have made huge gains in a region once dominated by the Republicans.


The shift speaks for the GOP is becoming smaller and smaller foothold in the Golden State. Recently, the number of registered Democrats number of registered Republicans surpassed in Orange County for the first time since the Watergate-era, with the County Registrar of voters – starting on Wednesday – under 548,952 Democrats, compared with only 548,095 Republicans.

While not a huge advantage, it has in addition, a drastic shift of the Republican party’s halcyon days of the early 1990s, when it enjoyed a 22-percentage point advantage over Democrats and the more conservative areas reflects a trend in recent years in all of California.

In recent years, neighboring San Diego County, the Democrats proposed and, on election night last November, California, 25th constituency, Democrats went for the first time since 1993, when established politicians, Katie Hill defeated Republican incumbent Steve Knight. In the 2018 midterm elections all saw of Orange County districts, the Democratic as well as most of San Diego County – turning the state’s congressional delegation and statehouse, an even deeper hue of blue.

The Republicans now hold only seven of the 53 congressional seats, and both seats in the Senate to keep the Democrats.

“We have seen since 2016, and even before that we always blue and blue,” Ada Briceño, the Chairman of the Orange County democratic party, told Fox News. “We know that trend will continue. The changes in our demographics go, in order to ensure that, and the fact that we are activists and leaders on the ground are working very hard to ensure that we move and speak and enamoring people.”


Both Democratic and Republican leaders have cited the demographic change and electoral base in the region as one of the main reasons for the shift in the policy orientation in recent years.

The immigrant population of Orange County, for example, grew five times as fast as the total population between 1980 and 2000, and despite a slowing influx of new immigrants, the region’s Asian and Latino populations are expected to continue on an upward trend thanks to the children of the immigrant families in the United States was born.


In California’s 48th electoral district, the last autumn, a longstanding Republican mount Dana Rohrabacher saw lose Democrat Harley Rouda, the Latino population went from 38,803 in 1980 to 145,585 in the year 2017 -, or 8 percent of the district’s population to 21 percent.

Also in the state of the 45 Congress, where the Democrats Katie Porter won last November against incumbent Republican Mimi Walters, the Asian-American population jumped from 14,528 in 1980, or 4.4 percent, to nearly a quarter of the district population in the year 2017 with 175,540.

People vote in one Orange County polling station inside a fire station during the midterm elections in Huntington Beach, California, on 6. November 2018. (Photo: MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images)

Republican politicians in California admit that they need to do a better job of fielding candidates who appeal to a diversification of the electoral base, but to say that the Democrats play “identity politics” and that at some point the pendulum swings back to the right.

“The Democrats are really good to play identity politics, but identity politics is a sugar high,” Tony Krvaric, the Chairman of the Republican party of San Diego County, told Fox News. “Finally, people are waking up and realize the Democrats have done nothing for you.”


Democrats Balk this claim, with the argument that, while they have certainly worked to recruit younger and more diverse voters, the increase in registrations for your party that people from all strata of society and was inspired by the party’s stance on issues from immigration to the environment in comparison with those of the Republicans – and in particular the hard-line rhetoric of President Trump.

“The rhetoric that is the trump card, by it is really out in Orange County people,” said Briceño. “We had a man in his 70s, who was a Republican for over 20 years, come to the office only the other day, and switching to a Democrat, because of the trump the rhetoric.”

“[Trump] has added us a nice gift,” Briceño.


Political observers in the state tend to agree with this statement, bearing in mind the last time a place like Orange County, the Democrats proposed after Richard Nixon’s resignation from the White house in the Wake of the Watergate scandal.

“Trump people think all, it is a conspiracy, while the people who do not say like him, it is a major change in the ideology,” Will Swaim, the President of the California Policy Center, told Fox News. “But every time, when you see a sudden shift in the registration of voters, it’s not a shift in philosophy or ideology. Is it the person at the top of the ticket.”

Swaim added that, while many Republicans in the region, with some of the Trump administration’s policies, especially in terms of economy and trade, the President of the impetuous and combative style also has many the wrong way rubbed.


“It is really the President behave the way that hurt people,” he said. “You can like his policies, but you don’t know how he behaves.”

Despite the recent shift in the direction of the Democrats, said in places like Orange and San Diego counties, Swaim, that if you are historical trends, the signs, the faces back to the GOP.

“The last time this happened, the phenomenon was fairly short-lived,” he said. “Conservative principles will continue to thrive here, but the Democrats are on the rise.”

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