Fox News poll: gap narrows to 2018 vote preference

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Are the lessons of the PA-18 to translate to the 2018 midterm elections?

The tightness of the race between Conor Lamb and Rick Saccone specific Pennsylvania 18 constituency was? Syndicated radio host Kevin McCullough and Juan Williams at the debate.

The latest Fox News poll finds the race tightening, if the voters are asked to list their candidate preference in this case, the Congress-elections.

This is good news for the Republicans, because the Democrats have been by 15 points in October (50-35 percent) in the so-called generic ballot test. Now, it is a 5-point, 46 percent of voters, the Democratic candidate in their district and 41 percent the Republicans would edge.

“Just not winning the popular national vote is enough to flip the house,” says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “In the face of the GOP districting benefits data from 2012 and 2014, the Democrats have to bring a margin of at least five points that the majority of the game.”


“I like this question as a gauge of the perceptions of month-to-month,” Anderson says. “But its predictive power is seven months after the election in doubt.”

Anderson points out that in March 2014, Democrats had a 2-point edge on the vote, the question and the Republicans ultimately picked up 13 house, November. And in March 2010, Republicans have a 4 points lead and went on to win 63 seats.

Around 36 percent of voters say they are more enthusiastic about heading to the ballot box this year than in previous congressional elections, 12 percent are less enthusiastic, and 51 percent feel about the same as usual. And when you hear the cliché, “not: it all depends on the turnout,” forget you, only under the sub-group of the enthusiastic voters, the democratic candidate is preferred by a wide 60-33 percent margin. The Republican leads among those feeling “about the same” (38% Democrat, vs. 48 percent of Republicans).

The survey finds 52 percent are less optimistic about the direction of the country compared to last year, and to be more nervous (47 percent) confident (40 percent) about the economy.

That sounds like the electorate is in a bad mood, but this is the first time since 2010 that less than half of voters feel “nervous” about the economy. Forty-seven percent are nervous today, down from 61 percent in 2016, and a height of 70 percent in 2010. In addition, 51 percent feel optimistic about their finances and 60 per cent are optimistic about their “personal happiness”.

Meanwhile, 53 percent of voters think that taxes are too high, and 39 percent say that their tax bill “right.” A year ago there were 55 percent and 40 percent on the right (March 2017). Four percent feel their taxes are too low, compared with 2 percent in the past year.

Republicans passed a new Federal tax law last December, and the poll is the first time that President Trump will receive a positive job evaluation tax: 48 percent approve and 46 percent disapprove. In October it was 37-51%.

The Fox News poll is based on landline and cell phone interviews with 1,014 randomly selected voters nationwide and was conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R) from March 18-21, 2018. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters.

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