nearvideo President Trump slams Sen. John McCain during Ohio rally
Panel-reaction and analysis on the GOP response to trump’s latest attacks.
Despite the low approval ratings and the cloud, the Miller probe, President Trump’s easily a second term would win if the elections were held today, according to economic models, with a history of correctly picking presidential winners.
According to a report by Politico, a thriving U.S. economy with low unemployment, cheaper gas prices and rising wages, coupled with the historical advantage enjoyed by the President Trump to win a strong shot, a second term in office in a “landslide.”
“The economy is just so damn strong, and now, by all historical precedent, the incumbent should run away with him,” Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of the TrendMacrolytics, a market research company, predicts to win the trump in 2016, told Politico. “I just don’t see how the blue wall, all of them could resist.”
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The Yale economist and pioneer of election forecaster Ray Fair, allegedly, also Trump is currently winning re-election on the back of the booming economy and its incumbent advantage.
“Even if you have a mediocre, but not great economy, and this is more or less consensus that between now and the election, has a trump card to victory and a non-trivial margin,” Fair to Politico, the prediction said that Trump would be compared to shooting 54 percent of the popular vote with only 46 percent for the Democrats. This would mark a significant profit by 2016, if he lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
Of course, forecasters warn that can change a lot between now and polling day by 2020. When the markets suddenly start in the tank, which spells trouble for Trump could be like a bomb.revelations from various investigations in trump, his business Empire and his 2016 presidential campaign
And one of the biggest variables includes, the Democratic candidate Trump will ultimately be the face of next year, with a constantly growing field currently, bribes for the nomination. The economic models used to predict presidential winners and losers things like the election polls, and personal characteristics ignore the most important factors when dealing with a candidate like Trump who inspires both fierce loyalty and bitter opposition on the other.
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Still, the economy is generally considered to be the most important factor when it comes to how voters said inner ballot and Luskin, it would have to lose a large decline in economic growth and the increase in unemployment for trump. Luskin’s current model tracks GDP growth, gas prices, inflation, disposable income, tax burden and wage and salary lists, – Trump votes to win in a blowout with 294 electoral votes.
“There are a lot of would have to slow well not quite,” Luskin of the economy said.