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Stirewalt Analyzes The New Jersey Senate Race
Stirewalt Analyzes The New Jersey Senate Race
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To do on the service plan: Dems have what it takes to win – I’ll Tell you What: Wild, Wild west – Newsom got what he wanted, what now? – Disappointing de Leon gets another crack at the Feinstein – district, district of
DO DEMS HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO WIN
After the biggest primary day in 2018 and so far, we can report to you what has changed in the landscape for the midterm elections: Absolutely nothing.
On Tuesday, it was a race Democrats ‘” biggest test so far with 14 competitive house, two competitive Senate race and two competitive gubernatorial race, all on the vote. The imperative this week, as it is every week for the Democrats, is in the selection of the right candidate, the Republicans will keep for defense.
On Tuesday was more complicated, for the blue Team, because California had found the crazy election laws, under which the party locked themselves in three of the seven districts in which Republican-held seats are in danger. This is not going to happen.
There is also the danger for Democrats, the former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa would be in the November runoff, the first place finisher Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, which would no doubt turn ugly. That didn’t happen, either.
California Democrats were also concerned about the fact that sen Dianne Feinstein , could be in trouble this fall because of a challenge from former Senate majority Leader Kevin de León. But you beat him by nearly 1.3 million votes, with not nearly enough other votes for democratic candidates, credible status ” in your drain.
In California and other States on Tuesday, the challenge for the Democrats was to avoid the temptation, have your voters recently died in Nebraska and Kentucky in the last primaries. The fringe felt empowered after a couple of wins and looking for more. And that’s not going to happen.
National Democrats might quibble about a few picks in the 13 races in which you try to turn the seats from red to blue, but overall they got the quality of the candidates in your district. It is, for example, hear much about Mikie Sherrill, moderate Navy veteran and a former Federal Prosecutor who is now stressed, fold the seat for New Jersey’s 11th District, vacated by Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen.
Now, the Democrats should be a little worried about the turnout on Tuesday. Admittedly, she had not much in the way of competitive contests across the country, but they could only the participation of a slight increase in choice compared to 2014. This is not surfing much of a wave.
But a survey shows today by Quinnipiac University, the democratic advantage in the generic ballot remains nationwide to be stable at approximately 6 points, you have to believe a lot of reason that the house is easy to reach.
We are about halfway through the primary calendar. So far, Democrats, shows the kind of discipline in picking candidates should be nervous about the Republicans. It is to say, a battle for control of the house, nothing about the giant fight in front of individual seats in the Senate. But Democrats are mostly to do what you need to do in order to keep the edge.
You will find below the race notes on the competitive house races had primaries on Tuesday, so that you can get to know the players in this rough-and-tumble game.
New Jersey 2. District (Lean Democrat)
The incumbent Republican, Frank LoBiondo (retirement, first elected 1994)
Republican candidate: Seth Grossman (a former Atlantic County freeholder and Atlantic City councilman)
Democratic candidacy: Jeff Van Drew (the state senator from Cape May)
2014 elections: Republicans win, it’s 62 percent.
New Jersey 3. District (Lean Republican)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: Tom MacArthur (elected 2014)
Democratic candidates: Andy Kim (the Obama administration national security adviser)
2014 elections: Republicans win 54 percent
New Jersey 5. District (Lean Democrat)
The incumbent, Democratic candidates: Josh God Heimer (elected until 2016)
Republican candidate: John McCann (former legal adviser to the Bergen County sheriff)
2014 elections: Republicans win with 55 percent
New Jersey 7. District (Lean Republican)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: Leonard Lance (2008-elected)
Democratic candidates: Tom Malinowski (former assistant secretary of state under President Barack Obama)
2014 elections: Republicans win, 59 percent
New Jersey 11th District (Throw)
Incumbent Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen (retired, first elected 1994)
Republican candidate: Jay Webber (state Deputy and former Chairman of the state Republican party)
Democratic candidates: of Mikie Sherrill (former Navy pilot and Federal advocacy)
2014 elections: Republicans win 63 percent
Iowa 1. The District (Throw)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: Rod Blum (elected 2014)
Democratic candidacy: Abby Fink Auer (two-term state legislator)
2014 elections: Republicans win with 51 percent
Iowa 3. District (Lean Republican)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: David Young (elected 2014)
Democratic candidacy: Cindy Axne (former state government officials and a small-business owner)
2014 elections: Republicans win 53 percent
California 10th District (Throw)
Incumbent, the Republicans nominated: Jeff Denham (first elected to the house in 2010)
Democratic Candidates: Josh Harder (Merchant)
2014 Election: A Republican Victory, 56 Percent
California’s 21st District (Lean Republican)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: David Valadao (elected 2012)
Democratic candidacy: TJ Cox (engineer and businessman)
2014 elections: Republicans win 58 percent
California 25 District (Throw)
Incumbent, the Republicans nominated: Steve Knight (elected 2014)
Democratic candidacy: Katie Hill (managing Director of the local homeless charity)
2014 elections: Republicans win 53 percent
California, 39th District (Throw)
Incumbent Republican Ed Royce (retired, first elected house, 1992)
Republican candidate: Young Kim (assemblywoman)
Democratic candidacy: Gil Cisneros (former Frito-Lay, distribution manager, won $266 million lottery jackpot in 2010)
2014 elections: Republicans win, 69 percent
California 45. District (Lean Republican)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: Mimi Walters (elected 2014)
Democratic candidacy: Katie Porter (UC Irvine law professor)
2014 elections: Republicans win 65 percent
California, 48th district (Throw)
Incumbent, Republican candidate: Dana Rohrabacher (first elected to the house in 1988)
Democratic candidacy: Harley Rouda (lawyer and tech entrepreneur, a DCCC-approved)
2014 elections: Republicans win, 64 percent
California, 49th District (Throw)
Incumbent Republican Darrell Issa (elected in 2000, retired)
Republican candidate: Diane Harkey (a member of the five-member Board of Equalization, which regulates tax assessments)
Democratic candidates: Mike Levin (a former Orange County democratic party, executive director, lawyer)
2014 elections: Republicans win 60 percent
THE RULES: FEVERISH
“The circumstances of a revolution quickened the public sensibility on every point with the security of popular rights, and in some cases, the warmth of our zeal beyond the degree of the due to the temperature of the body politics.” increase – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 26
TIME-OUT: THE BEDFORD BOYS
Appalachia magazine: “located halfway between the Virginia cities of Roanoke and Lynchburg, the community of Bedford, like many other small communities scattered throughout the Commonwealth… Unfortunately, Virginia’s small town carries a tragic, but honorable award is made, is a greater sacrifice to the liberation of Europe from Nazi control than any other community in America: is proportional to the nation suffering the most heavy losses on D-Day. … Although the invasion was a decisive allied victory came at a heavy cost. On the over 425,000 allied and German troops were killed, wounded or missing during the battle of Normandy… With a 1944 population of only about 3,200 inhabitants, situated in Bedford, Virginia, lost 23 young men in this campaign, gave it the highest proportional loss of any city in America for the D-Day invasion. Also, with the incredibly high causality such a disproportionate “population experienced during the Second world war, to KIA ratio” is unknown anywhere else in the entire United States.”
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Trump job performance
Average approval: with a 40.6 per cent
The average of the rejection: 53.6 percent
Net Rating: -13 Points
Change from a week ago: 0.4 points
[On average contains: Quinnipiac University: 40% approve – 51% oppose; Gallup: 41% approve – 55% lean; CBS News: 40% approve – 55% lean; CNN: 44% approve – 51% oppose; IBD: 38% approve – 56% oppose it.]
Control of the house
Republican Average: 41.8 Percent
Democratic Means: 48.2 Percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 6.4 points
Change from a week ago: democratic advantage by 0.2
[On average contains: Quinnipiac University: 47% Dems and 40% GOP; CNN: 47% Dems 44% GOP; CBS News: 50% of the Dems 41% GOP; Pew Research Center: 48% Dems 43% GOP; Monmouth University: 49% Dems 41% GOP.]
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I’LL TELL YOU WHAT: WILD, WILD WEST
This week, Dana Perino and Chris Stirewalt discuss the results of the California jungle primary-and what is taken away from the result. Plus, Dana keeps the compilation as Chris is called into question with some of the Golden State trivia. LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE HERE
NEWSOM GOT WHAT HE WANTED, WHAT NOW?
LAT: “Gavin Newsom, the darling of the California Democratic party is the core of the liberal base, rolled to a first place in the Tuesday primary election for Governor and faces November showdown with John Cox, a multi-millionaire Republican looking forward to the extreme right-wing policies of President Trump. The results mark a stunning defeat for the former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, represents the case of a politician who embodies the growing power of the Latino electorate when he was elected mayor in 2005. Villaraigosa acknowledged in the late evening, urging those who voted for him, support for his opponents. … Newsom, 50, a former San Francisco mayor, who is currently in his second term as California lieutenant governor, will face Cox, 62, Illinois, transplant, and real estate investor who ran for the U.S. house of representatives and the Senate twice, in Illinois, to miss the primary in all three. In 2008, Cox is also a campaign for the presidency, headed before deleting, if he failed any traction.”
Noem solves rivals, is expected to cruise in November – AP: “U.S. Rep. Kristi Noem won the South Dakota Republican primary for Governor on Tuesday, defeating Attorney General Marty Jackley , as the favorite of the state’s first female Governor. GOP primary voters made Noem, the only woman, the South Dakota Republicans have nominated for the top job. It extends to the face well-funded Democrat Billie Sutton, a state senator, and former professional rodeo cowboy, in the November elections. Noem credited to their first victory on his travels around the state and talk about politics, the occupation of a bold new vision for South Dakota. ‘I expect the General election will be competitive, but we are hard said work,’ Noem. “We will start with a focus on tomorrow.’ The Governor’s contest — the highest-profile match on the ballot started, mostly polite, but pissed at the end, as the candidates trying to break through and in the elementary school.”
Battle for the open New Mexico Governor shaft – KOB4: “U.S. Rep. Michelle Lujan Grisham , are the Democrats to take Republican U.S. Rep Steve Pearce in November. The two are vying to be New Mexico’s next Governor. The three-term Congressman of the victory was called early Tuesday night, beating the former media executive , Jeff Apodaca and state Sen. Joseph Cervantes. “As the next Governor, to win when it comes to the battles that are important and the taking of New Mexico in a new direction, as my mother taught me, I will said back down,” Lujan-Grisham. Lujan Grisham’s campaign has received support from a number of unions, progressive advocacy groups, and some tribal governments, in the amount of $1.4 million. The creation of jobs is a big topic of conversation in the six months before the November election, with both candidates focused on more opportunities to New Mexico. … “I’m the only one in the General election, which has a business and compete with major international companies and job creation,’ Mr Pearce interview with KOB said in a telephone.”
DISAPPOINTING DE LEON GETS ANOTHER CRACK AT FEINSTEIN
Sacramento bee: “California state Deputy Kevin de León, won the second place in advance in the November election against Dianne Feinstein in the U.S. Senate race. The Los Angeles Democrat had 11 percent of the vote, and Republicans James Bradley 9 percent – a difference of almost 100,000 votes. The Associated Press called the race for de Leon early Wednesday. His campaign team is expected to extend its second place lead, as the state continues to be the results of the primary election. Changes to California election law, and an increased reliance on the vote by mail was able to take my results in tight races for days or weeks to determine. Feinstein, running for her fifth term in office, breezed into the top two run Tuesday with 44 percent support of voters. The veteran senator maintained a substantial lead from the first survey of likely voters, released months before the election.”
Menendez survived the primary, but the GOP has a puncher’s chance – Political: “The New Jersey Senate seat held by Bob Menendez should be one of the safest for Democrats in this year. But Menendez, the legal problems and the deep pockets of his Republican opponent, Bob Hugin, an element of uncertainty into the equation. The control of the U.S. Senate could depend on the result of Menendez survived a six-week Federal corruption trial last fall, after a jury deadlocked on the bribery charges against him. However, the Senate ethics Committee later determined he violated Federal law by accepting and not reported private jet flights and other gifts from his friend, Florida eye doctor Salomon Melgen. Hugin supported and donated, the hard-to-President Donald Trump in the 2016 election and ushered in a New Jersey-based pharmaceutical company that produce the prices increased 20 percent in less than a year, a key cancer drug, money abroad parked and made it more difficult for companies, a generic version of the drugs.”
GOP taps Montana auditor to cope with Tester – appeal: “State Auditor Matt Rosendale won the GOP nomination Tuesday night to take the Montana Democratic sen. Jon Tester in November. With 96% of precincts reporting, Rosendale, led a four-way field with 34 percent of the vote, according to The Associated Press. The former district judge Russ Fagg was in second place with 29 percent. Fagg delivery with the support of former Montana elected officials, including ex-Reps. Rick Hill and Denny Rehberg and three former governors. Tester ran freely in the Democratic primary. Rosendale will now try that the incumbent, never more than 50 percent of the votes in a state, the President, Donald Trump, won with more than 20 points in 2016. The Tester starts with a great financial advantage. He ended with the pre-primary reporting period with $6.4 million in the bank compared to Rosendale $392,000. Within elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rating of the race Tilts Democratic.”
Q-poll: Trump’s support remains stable, Dems maintain the edge on generic ballot – Quinnipiac University
Trump signs bill to expand private care for veterans – AP
“We make the man-the bump-type-thing. That’s what it is. And I think he attracts me so much as I’m attracted to him.” – Sen Joe Manchin, D-W. Va., Description embraced, he shares with the President. Trump recently mocked Manchin, said the senator is always trying to hug him.
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THE DISTRICT, THE DISTRICT
Happiness: “to fly, The days of being able to go on an airline with an unusual emotional support animals seem to come to an end. JetBlue is a growing collection of carriers, in the process of updating the requirements for emotional support animals. joined 1. In July, a passenger who wishes travel with an emotional support or psychiatric service animal to the airline is an early heads-up and the correct file paperwork at least 48 hours in advance. The carrier is the limitation that emotional support animals can bring you on Board. ‘JetBlue only dogs, cats and miniature horses are accepted as emotional support or psychiatric service animals and the limits of such allowed animals to one per customer,” the airline said in a statement. In the event that the statement is not clear enough to some people, JetBlue listed some of the animals, the would not allow on Board, including hedgehogs, ferrets, sugar gliders (a type of possum, is illegal to own in five States), the teeth, nothing with shock (i.e., no emotional support, elephants), birds of prey, and of course spiders and snakes.”
Chris Stirewalt , the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. FOX News mid-term report in your Inbox every day wants? Sign up here.
Chris Stirewalt, Fox News Channel (FNC) entered into force in July 2010, and serves as politics editor in Washington, DC