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Data trend shows no seat is safe in 2018

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On the roster: data, trends show that no place is safe in 2018 – I’ll Tell you What: Memo-mania – Budget-offer on the deck, results TBD – house Intel-Committee-debates on Justice Roberts testimony – This is not an eggs-aggeration

DATA TREND SHOWS NO SEAT IS SAFE IN 2018
Cook Political report: “The first two months of 2018, given that both parties have reasons for optimism. The Republicans have cut Democrats ” lead in the FiveThirtyEight average of the generic congressional vote polls in half, from 12 points in December to more than six points today. Debate about the unpopular health care and pay taxes have subsided, news of the strong economic data and record high stocks (at least until the end of last week) has probably helped the GOP. However, most of the new County-by-County fundraising and polling are also the seats, previously considered safe. numbers are downright terrible for the Republicans, In the fourth quarter of 2017, 39 Republican house incumbents were outraised by at least one Democratic Challenger, and private surveys, and special-election results suggest Democrats are very competitive, even in some of the districts, President Trump , won with wide margins. At first glance, these two data seem to have trends, like to be in contradiction to each other. How could Democrats shrink’ lead in the national polls, improving their odds in each of the circles? The answer: the ‘macro’ Outlook for the house (national referenda) and the “micro” point of view (County-by-County) are not diverging; they come in line.”

The Republicans can take comfort in their diversity, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “the Republicans have better than a 50: 50 ratio to keep control of the U.S. Senate, even in the case of a Democratic wave in November. The reason for this is the card: Including two independents who Caucus with them, Democrats fight back 26 seats of the 34 contested in this fall, this is the one-sided Senate-card to each party. in a mid-term since 1938 Five of the democratic seats are in States that Donald Trump won in landslides, and another five are in States that he won. Because the map is so good for the Republicans, it is possible that they will add to their majority, even if the elections environment will break against them in other elections for the U.S. house of representatives. That is, do the Democrats have a path to a Senate majority, albeit slim.”

Pence shares fundraising love, but not all –
Political: “As Vice-President Mike Pence‘s leadership PAC contributed on Wednesday, 30 endangered house Republicans in the whole country, especially to the left from the President-who is probably the it most needs: Rep. Carlos Curbelo. And the omission is not necessarily bad news for Curbelo, who takes most of the anti-Trump seat to a Republican running for re-election in the Congress. … Curbelo is one of 11 Republicans running for re-election to seats identified as toss-ups by the Cook Political report. Of them, only four do not receive financial aid from the Pence’s Great America Committee on Wednesday: Curbelo, California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, Colorado Rep. Mike Coffman , Virginia Rep. Barbara Comstock, a contribution from the leadership of the PAC in the last year.”

House Dems kick the fundraising into gear-to-bring – National Journal: “house Democrats say they have the biggest offensive battlefield-at least a decade—and the numbers back the claim. Around 180 Democratic house candidates in nearly 100 Republican-held districts listed in 2018 with $100,000 or more in the bank, according to a National Journal analysis of Federal Election Commission data. In comparison, when the Democrats claimed last, the majority in 2006, held only about 40 of their candidate in 38 of the GOP-districts reached that mark by the start of the election year. Democrats’ task this year will be to translate a banner-off the year full of grassroots energized donors and well-funded candidates in a 24-seat net-gain control of the house would give. The Republicans are already preparing for the worst.”

The candidate must have outstanding moments for the year 2020 –
WashTimes: “The 2020 Democratic presidential primary is shaping up as a rhetorical race to the far left, and Sen. Cory A. Booker makes his bid for front-runner status with some of the most incendiary jabs to date. … In a presidential field that some analysts expect, will include the 20 Democrats who need to win, attention is a likely candidate to slide on the stage yet more dramatic moments. “How come Booker for yourself, especially if it will likely tent a few names in the field? You will become a master on the issues of the Democratic base,” said Larry Sabato, Director of the University of Virginia center for politics. “It is not only problems. The anti-Trump enthusiasm among the people, the votes in the Democratic primaries and Caucasus could not be more intense, and that is very unlikely to dim.'”

THE RULES: RE-DO
“It would be impracticable to have separate models for a perfect structure, the enlightened friends of liberty would have been obliged to abandon the cause of that type of government as indefensible.” – Alexander Hamilton, Federalist No. 9

TIME-OUT: GIDDY UP!

NatGeo: “The Olympic games: Nothing beats the thrill of Alpine skiing, the intrigues of the figure skating scandals, and the excitement … is pulled across a lake by a horse? Until the 1990s, countries that hosted the Winter (or summer) games to add could be a ‘demonstration Sport” to your range of activities. This is not an official medal events, and they are often presented to niche, regional recreational activities. Some of them went to the official events, but many of them (such as skijoring, the one with the horse). … Skijoring is a race in which skiers hang on to the reins of a horse (or dog) and pulled along over the ice and snow. It was only as a demonstration sport once more to the winter games 1928 in St. Moritz, Switzerland, where the participants burned each other with horses on a frozen lake. Skijoring is still practiced today with both horses and dogs in Europe and North America.”

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INDICATOR
Trump job performance
Average Approval:
40.8 Percent
The average of the rejection: 54.2 percent
Net Rating:
-13.4 Points
Change from a week ago: up 1.4 points
[On average contains: Quinnipiac University: 40% approve – 55% lean; Gallup: 40% approve – 57% lean; IBD: 35% – 58%; Monmouth University: 44% approve – 48% reject; Fox News: 45% approve – 53% reject.]

Control of the house
Republican Average:
40.6 Per Cent
Democratic Average: 47.4 Percent
Advantage: Democrats plus 6.8 points
Change from a week ago:
democratic advantage by 0.8 points
[On average contains: Quinnipiac University: 49% Dems and 40% GOP; IBD: 46% Dems 41% GOP; Monmouth University: 47% Dems, 45% of GOP; Fox News: 44% Dems 38% GOP; ABC News/WaPo: 51% Dems, 39% of GOP.]

I’LL TELL YOU WHAT: MEMO-MANIA
This week Dana Perino and Chris Stirewalt to discuss the potential for a military parade, the latest Peter Strzok and Lisa-page, text-messages, and perhaps a President and Eric Holder? Plus, Dana shares a story about President George W. Bush , and Chris tried to use some swing state trivia. LISTEN AND SUBSCRIBE HERE

BUDGET-OFFER ON THE DECK, RESULTS TBD
Bloomberg: “The Senate is ready to quickly create a cross-party budget deal on Thursday that would prevent a government shutdown and suspend the debt, but the bill faces uncertain prospects in the house, because of the objections from the chamber to the top Democrats and GOP conservatives. Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi, who stressed their opposition with an unprecedented eight-hour address on the House floor Wednesday, called it “a good bill’ Thursday morning, but she said she will not vote for him without a promise of an open immigration debate. … The dissent in the house was in stark contrast to the comity in the Senate, where majority Leader Mitch McConnell and democratic leader Chuck Schumer delivered a laudatory back-to-back speeches to the agreement, the add would be almost $300 billion for state programs, and suspend the debt ceiling until March 2019. The bill, over night, released, allowed the sale of 100 million barrels from the Strategic Oil Reserve to pay for some of the new expenditure, and collects customs and airport security fees in the next ten years.”

The house freedom Caucus is holding the opposition against the bill – WashTimes: “The conservative house freedom Caucus, said Wednesday night that it officially opposes the budget deal impressed by the senators earlier in the day. The deal ends sequestration caps on the Pentagon without acceding to the Democratic demands boosts to domestic spending, but it still raises spending by almost $300 billion in the next two fiscal years. This was a bridge too far for the freedom Caucus. ‘Official position: HFC against the caps offer. We support the funding of our troops, but the growing size of the government’s 13 percent is not what is sent to the voters for us here to do,’ the conservative group posted on Twitter. The rejection had predicted earlier in the day by Rep. Mark Meadows, North Carolina Republican and the Executive Board of the group.”

HOUSE INTEL-COMMITTEE-DEBATES ON JUSTICE ROBERTS TESTIMONY
The Hill: “House Intelligence Chairman Devin Nunes (R-Calif.) has weighed whether it would be possible to bring, Chief Justice John Roberts , to ‘witnesses’ against the Congress as part of its investigation into the political inability of the Department of justice. In an interview with Hugh Hewitt on Wednesday, Nunes said GOP investigators had ‘rank’, such as the approach of the courts, their conclusion that the FBI misled the secret surveillance court. Roberts appoints judges to this court. “This is something we have, as I said, we have thought a lot about it. And the answer is that we don’t know the right way to go, because of the separation of powers question,’ Nunes said… The ‘next step, Nunes said, is send a letter to the courts, make them aware of his findings. But he and his staff are still discussed, whether the approach of the Supreme court or the surveillance court.”

The judgment of the judge: the attention – Fox News Senior judicial Analyst judge Andrew Napolitano explains why Americans should care about everything from the notes to the FISA courts: “The loss of liberty rarely comes overnight or in a stroke. In a democracy, the loss is usually a slow process that pushed often along by well-meaning people who don’t even notice until it’s too late, that you have created a monster. FISA is a monster. It started as a means of observing foreign agents in the United States, and today it is the watch every American to every time.” More here.

PLAY-BY-PLAY
WH staff Secretary, Rob Porter used the last day to domestic violence-allegations – Bloomberg

Trump appoints new chief ethics – Political

Lawmakers push for resolution to the NAFTA dispute – WSJ

AUDIBLE: KEEP IT LOW KEY
“I think confidence is quiet and insecurity is loud. America is the most powerful country in the history of humanity, everybody knows it, and we don’t need to show it.” – Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., in response to the President’s idea for a military parade.

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THIS IS NO EGGS-AGGERATION
Chicago Sun-Times: “A Google Translate error resulted in the Norwegian Olympic team get to 15,000 eggs. To compile, Norway-Olympic Team-the chefs were a shopping list for his Olympic athletes to the winter games of 2018 in South Korea. Due to the language barrier, the chefs used Google Translate to help you, from a Korean grocery store. But when truckloads full of eggs showed up on Norway camp shortly after the transaction, the recognized cooks quickly, there was a mistake in the translation by Google. Instead of an order of 1,500 eggs, ordered from the chefs and 15,000 — the equivalent of 1,250 cartons of 12. “There was literally no end to the supply. Absolutely incredible, ” cook Ståle Johansen said Norway’s Aftenposten. Fortunately, the chefs will be able to order the return of 13,500 eggs you get.”

Brianna McClelland
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This article was written by Fox News employees.

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