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Can Democrats win the house during midterms?
GOP strategist Ned Ryun weighs in on ‘Fox & Friends First.’
WASHINGTON – The battle for the House majority is gone.
At least that is the sense of a growing number of Democrats, the more and more confidence in their quest to seize control of at least one chamber of Congress six weeks before the election day.
The rising optimism among Democrats, who typically shared in private, has begun to spill into the open as a President Donald Trump with the consent of the values fall, and the Republican party is struggling under the weight of the President’s self-imposed political crises and unpredictable behavior.
“I believe that the Democrats will win back the house of representatives,” said New Mexico Rep. Ray Ben Lujan, Chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “Our candidates are in a strong position.”
Democratic confidence is particularly strong among the campaign agents who work closely with women, a critical voting bloc, turned to Trump the GOP in the suburbs and exurban districts, in which the house majority won or lost this fall. Surveys suggest that women are charged, and to punish eager to Trump party, as the voting season starts.
“I have to deliver all of the intentions of this institution, the US house for the Democrats,” said Stephanie Schriock, President of EMILY’S List, an organization that supports female Democrats. “We have the candidates in place, and then some.”
But with the shock of trump in 2016 victory still fresh, some Democrats are painfully aware that the essential factors which might arise, in the 45 days before the election, it could derail their alleged success. You are dealing with massive expenditures, the districts due to GOP super PACs, competition in gerrymandered congressional and are increasingly concerned about some of the main candidates.
That is, leave some top Democrats warn their party of the dangers of overconfidence.
“This is no time for trust. This is no time for braggadociousness or rage,” New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker told The Associated Press in an interview.
Booker, a potential for the 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, reminded his party of Hillary Clinton fantastic loss in the last presidential campaign: “If there is no self-satisfaction when there is someone to rest on their laurels, we need to go back to how people in the early days of November 2016.”
This is a hard message, push-to recognize a time, as well as Republican campaign professionals, public and private, that the conventional metrics for predicting election results to favor Democrats.
At this point in President Barack Obama’s first term in office, Gallup, the Democrat reported the approval rating at least five points higher than trump the current 38 percent approval. Obama’s party were going to lose 63 house, in 2010.
On the top of the trump card is the low approval is that the Republicans in this year was also saddled by more than 40 house retirements, assignment of power of incumbency in several competitions. And there are still signs that the democratic base is far more energy in the early years of the Trump-era, than the GOP.
“I would never tell a politician to be confident, because as the world changes,” said Republican strategist Rick Tyler. “But by the application of these metrics, Democrats 80 seats should pick up.”
The former Democratic National Committee chair Donna Brazile turned heads in an interview with ABC, as they predicted a democratic takeover in the Senate. Democrats need to take to claim the only two seats, the Senate majority, but most of the competitive Senate contests will be held this year in a Republican-leaning state.
“We are confident,” Brazile said. “Not cocky, but confident that we can run the tables in the Senate.”
Money Democrats could have planned to make it difficult”.
While democratic house candidates outraising their GOP rivals in many cases, which are expected to be Republicans in order to win, the bigger spend on the battle, especially because of their dependence on Super-PACs, which raise unlimited sums of money.
Schriock said EMILY, ‘ to spend S List expected $37 million to influence the election, his investments in the last presidential election campaign. To spend on the other side, the Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC allied with speaker of the house of representatives, Paul Ryan, expected to be around $100 million.
Already, the Republican powerhouse has committed more than $to put 70 million to the shape of the House-landscape, especially through the current ads attacking the Democratic candidate for the defence, as the between-season in the last few weeks.
In Minnesota, began early voting on Friday , Ryan’s super-PAC-to-dumping – $advertising 8 million euros in a campaign with the focus on two congressional districts. You belong to the 8. District, where the 32-year-old former democratic state Rep. Joe Radinovich faced charges that “he spent his life running from the law” in a recent ad that cites violations of several traffic.
Radinovich campaign called the claims “outrageous” and “scandalous”, it is wrong unpaid criminal presented paper as a crime and pretends to be a marijuana-related citation, that the Democrat received as a teenager.
To jeopardise the Fair or not, the Republican attacks, is an open seat in a Democratic leaning state.
It is not the only one.
Democrats are fighting for traction in a series of competitions, should be prime pickup opportunities — on paper at least. Polling suggests several vulnerable Republicans in swing districts are better than expected, a list with repetitions. Carlos Curbelo of Florida, Will Hurd of Texas and John Katko of New York.
And in Florida’s 27th district, a heavily Hispanic seat in Miami to open the former Health and Human Services Secretary Donna Shalala is locked in a surprisingly tight contest with Republican Maria Elvira Salazar, a well-known Spanish television reporter.
But not this relay concerns to the people lined up for hours outside of Philadelphia Dell Music Center Friday to see Obama rally Democratic voters in a crucial swing state.
Della Jamison, a 65-year-old Democrat from North Philadelphia, was effusive about her party’s chances when asked. In Pennsylvania alone, Democrats imagine, mirrors, seats half a dozen of the house.
“We are on the field of battle, baby,” said Jamison. “It’s already done.”
Peoples reported from New York. AP Congressional correspondent Lisa Mascaro contributed to this report.