Can down the Oscarwinnaars predict?

Just about every semibekende film critic if his or her “oscar” Italian-predictions all parts with the world. Today is the turn to a very different entity: the statistics.

© Reuters

We need to look to other film awards, to the visitor or to the opinion of leading film critics to the winners of the Oscars to predict? The American mathematician Iain Pardoe and his team try something else: statistics.

A statistical prediction model to be able to create, must first of all be clear what elements of the outcome will affect. From Smack study found that elements such as time and production budget is the prediction of a winner precious little influence. That does not mean that those elements of the choices of The Academy can not send: cinephile preferences are strictly personal, and as one of the 6000-odd voters kicks on lengthy movies or expensive blockbusters, can that individual hassle-free his or her voice reaching out on the basis of that fetish.

What it does mean, is that those components are not efficient indicators for Oscarwinst. Much more meaningful are the prices, the nominated movies earlier in the wait dragged. It is no secret that the other ceremonies of the awardseizoen exert a strong influence on who an Academy Award on the mantelpiece. So the Golden Globes seriously what in the pap to pieces, just as the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Let’s also not forget that the Oscarnominaties yourself count in this. Logically, it makes a film with a huge amount of nominations a lot of opportunity to with the title of ‘best film’ to go for a walk. In addition, it looks, among others, the interaction between the categories of best director and best film of great importance. Still, but three times received a work the title of ‘best film’ without the director being nominated opscharrelde. Vice versa is a similar tendency is visible: only two filmmakers were given the title of ‘best director’ without their brainchild on the nomination list adorned.

For their mathematical model to test, pleurde Pardoe’s team of statisticians, all available Oscardata of 1938 in the model, then the Oscarwinnaars of 1938 to be able to ‘predict’. Afterwards compared researchers the pseudo-predictions with the actual winners, the results of the model are feeding, and then to do the same for all years until the own years. The more data the model contains, the more accurate the predictions. Between 1938 and 2006, the average accuracy of 69%, but when the data between 1977 and 2006 look, took Parode an accuracy of 79%.

Oscarvoorspellingen according to the statistical model of Iain Pardoe:


Probability: 97%

The competition:

Moonlight (2%) / Arrival (<1%) / Fences (<1%) / Hacksaw Ridge (<1%) / Hell or High Water (<1%) / Hidden Figures (<1%) / Lion (<1%) / Manchester by the Sea (<1%)

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With fourteen nominations is La La Land, the biggest favourite. The film rijfde all of a Producer’s Guild Award and a Golden Globe for best musical/comedy within this, two important indicators for any film with an Oscar is going to walk. Had the -not in the statistics processed – overhyping of the film turn, will be the eight times nominated Moonlight, probably with the title of ‘best film’.

BEST DIRECTOR: Damien Chazelle

Probability: 98%

The competition:

Mel Gibson [Hacksaw Ridge, 1%] / Barry Jenkins [Moonlight, 1%] / Kenneth Lonergan [Manchester by the Sea, <1%] / Denis Villeneuve [Arrival, <1%]


With both the Director’s Guild and Golden Globe Director’s award in his pocket, can Damien Chazelle sleep on both ears: the history of the cinema must have been a very unexpected turn to take him no hourly golden statuette for his La La Land-regiewerk. Nevertheless, it seems Hollywood is Mel Gibson again in the arms closed, and the man is thus on the second place. There is a slight chance that Barry Jenkins with the price is going to run, but it is extremely unlikely that Lonergan or Villeneuve the award will hijack.

BEST ACTOR: Ryan Gosling

Probability: 44%

The competition:

Casey Affleck [Manchester by the Sea, 29%] / Denzel Washington [Fences, 21%] / Andrew Garfield [Hacksaw Ridge, 4%] / Viggo Mortensen [Captain Fantastic, 1%]


Here it may be even in all directions. Ryan Gosling won the Golden Globe for best musical/comedy actor, and was in 2006 an Oscar for his role in Half Nelson. The La La Land-actor, however, is hampered by Casey Affleck, who at the Golden Globes went to walk away with the prize for best drama actor. That last predicted on average a little more the future Best Actor then the award that Gosling binnenhaalde. Also Denzel Washingtons chances of winning eyes it is still relatively high: with his Screen Actors Guild award, the man would still be 21% have a chance at an Oscar.


Probability: 94%

The competition:

Isabelle Huppert [Elle, 4%] / Ruth Negga [Loving, 1%] / Natalie Portman [Jackie, <1%] / Meryl Streep [Florence Foster Jenkins, <1%]


Emma Stone took out both a Screen Actors Guild award and the Golden Globe for best musical/comedy actress. Combined with the frequent La La Land-nominations looks its profits are exceptionally large. The drama-Golden Globe went to Isabelle Huppert, making her a potential challenger for Stone. Ruth Negga has a small -but unlikely – chance to steal the show. Streep and Portman sit there according to the statistics rather for Piet Snot.

No security

There are other statistical models that, despite a similar foundation, their focus on other variables. So predicting the numbers of journalist-mathematician Ben Zauzmer and pollwebsite Out that Casey Affleck with the golden statuette will go for a walk. Remarkably enough, Ryan Gosling is not on the second, but in third place. This bias of Squarely model is due to the weight that the other two men ascribe to Afflecks BAFTA and Denzel Washingtons SAG award.

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