in the vicinityVideoBiden campaign is responding to Warren’s” Medicare for all”
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If you are after the national polls, former Vice-President, Joe Biden, has re-established himself as the clear frontrunner in the race for the democratic presidential nomination.
But the fight for the nomination is far from a national contest – it’s a race for the United States and its President participants. And in Iowa and New Hampshire – the first two States to vote in the nomination calendar – polls suggest a very different story.
THE LATEST FROM FOX NEWS ON THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN
In Iowa, Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts and enjoys a slight edge, with Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont is fighting for second place with South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg, seen its poll numbers rise in recent weeks. The average of the latest polls from real clear politics shows even Buttigieg closely in the No. 2 slot hold about Biden.
And in New Hampshire, Warren has the edge over Biden and Sanders enjoys, with Buttigieg in fourth place, according to the RCP average.
In both countries, Biden saw his numbers tumble since the summer.
New Hampshire Institute of Politics executive director Neil Levesque is not surprised.
“National polls are always lagging behind, what is slipping is happening in the early States, and Biden and Warren rise,” said Neil Levesque, a long-time veteran of presidential primary politics.
For their part, the Biden campaign is playing down expectations in Iowa.
“I think we are the only ones that don’t have to win Iowa, honestly,” campaign manager Greg Schultz told The Wall Street Journal, citing her “broad and diverse coalition.”
Biden is the undisputed national front-runner was there, even before he officially launched its campaign in late April. And the former Vice President enjoyed a lead in most recent national polling, including three live operators to polls released Sunday.
“The reality is that Biden — very high name ID — must also in the national polls,” said the veteran GOP pollster and strategist Ed Goeas.
With three months to go until the nomination calendar starts, Biden stands at 31 percent in a new Fox News poll, with Warren at 21 percent, Sanders 19 percent, and Buttigieg at 7 percent. All of the others in the large field of Democratic White house candidates registered from 3 percent to zero.
THE LATEST POLLS FROM FOX NEWS
Biden enjoys a 28-23 percent lead over Warren in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, with Sanders to 17 percent, Buttigieg at 9 percent, and all other, 2 percent or less. And the former Vice President holds a 27-23 percent edge over Warren in a NBC/Wall Street Journal survey, with Sanders at 19 percent, Buttigieg at 6 percent, and all others at 4 percent or less.
The latest real clear politics average of national polling suggests Biden regaining a lead over Warren, who had all but dissipated in the last month.
But Ray Buckley, the longtime Chairman of the New Hampshire Democratic party, discounts in national opinion polls.
“For the life of me, I can’t understand the purpose of the national polls when it comes to the nomination process, because it has no relevance to reality has said,” Buckley.
Parachute in New Hampshire or Iowa-and you will see a very different story than what is captured by national surveys.
Warren and Buttigieg stressed to bring their organizational muscles last weekend at the Iowa Democratic party’s annual freedom and justice. The two candidates brought in the most Fans and grabbed the loudest cheers at the event, the biggest night of the year for Iowa Democrats.
AIR-TIGHT PRIMARY RACE IN IOWA AS BUTTIGIEG PROTRUDES IN THE TOP-TIER
Warren stands at 22 percent in the poll in the Hawkeye state – from the New York Times and Siena College. Sanders was back by 3 percentage points, at 19 per cent, with Buttigieg surging 18 percent, and Biden with 17 percent.
On Friday, Buttigieg made headlines by telling Showtime’s ‘The Circus’ is the primary battle winnow on “two-way” race between him and Warren, the populist senator, in the publication of a progressive policy proposal after another. The 37-year-old contender’s opposition to Biden, and Sanders sparked a small controversy.
But the next day, the candidate backpedal, told reporters not appeared, he believe that his comments “came from the right.
“Look, the bottom line is, this is a really strong competition among the really strong campaigns,” Buttigieg added on Saturday.
While Warren has the slight edge in Iowa, there is no clear frontrunner. It is a similar story in New Hampshire, where no candidate enjoys the lead a real.
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The recent survey conducted by the University of New Hampshire, and CNN, are Sanders with a 21-18-percent advantage over Warren. Both candidates come from the neighboring States, are very well known in the granite state, and has strong organizations in the first-in-the-nation primary state. And the expectations are high for both candidates – especially Sanders – who beat eventual candidacy of Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire’s 2016 Democratic presidential primary.
Biden is set to 15 percent in the survey, with Buttigieg in fourth at 10 percent.
This cycle is far from the first to show national surveys, out-of-sync with the early-voting-state polls.
Early state voters are traditionally more in the first battle, often the race experience up close and personally. And this is reflected in real time in the early state polling.
“People are still shopping. I’m not surprised to see so many of the undecided in New Hampshire,” said Terry Shumaker, a former Ambassador, advocate and primary-veteran, is a longtime Biden friend and a top replacement for the ex-Vice-President in the granite state in this cycle.
New Hampshire and Iowa voters are often determined late. And this is reflected in the new UNH poll.
According to the survey, only 23 percent of likely Democratic presidential primary voters in New Hampshire on definitely have their minds whom they will support in the February contest. And in the campaign of the policy, three months is an eternity.
“The reality is that this race is very fluid,” Buckley said. “I don’t believe that any of these campaigns, which show the polls.”