nearvideo-trump’s campaign says the polls are on the President-page indictment
Reaction and analysis of Trump 2020 campaign deputy communications director Erin Perrine.
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On the roster: attack of the stupid surveys! – Warning signs for Warren fundraising Bloomy Trump eroded the General election cash-lead cross-y love, support for cancer John Lewis – Ewe stricken to go up a cup size
ATTACK OF THE STUPID SURVEYS!
Readers always have a lot of questions that they work for us, via surveys and such. Like a lot of questions.
In our experience, the biggest problem with the polling is not in these days, on how surveys are done, but as we are talking in the press about them. Consider this terribly misleading headline from Gallup: “Obama, Trump tie as the Most Admired man in 2019.”
This is some powerful clicky clickbait right. It is sure to make partisans on both sides angry – “How could someone think he is admirable” – and it is the concept, an objective, comprehensive partisan divide, the succors of lazy political reporting.
But read the article and you will see: Gallup asked respondents: “What is man that you heard of or have read is, living today in any part of the world, do you admire the most?” This is to say the equivalent of: “the name of a famous person you like.”
Thanks to the significant parts of our population, which are absolutely skull-busted drunk on partisanship, to guess what name you’ll hear a great deal: the name of The last President of each side. And that adds up to a modest 18 percent for both President trump and former President Barack Obama.
Before we explain how polls like that are inherently misleading, a word for a devoted Democratic and robust Republican readers: you Might be thinking about some non-political news from time to time. Amazing 45 percent of Republicans, said Trump was most wonderful male human life on the planet. Forty-one percent of Democrats said the same about Obama.
You live in a country that includes this guy, this guy, this guy, this guy and this guy. And that’s without even leaving the United States. Bob Newhart is still alive, for God’s sake!
We understand that a lot of these Trump and Obama, the responses were knee-jerk reactions on a random call, that were pushed by internal partisan Filter from the screen, something that doesn T seem like a tribe-semiotic.
But seriously, if after careful consideration, the politician is the living person you admire the most, take a deep breath and ask yourself the following question: “Is early in 1864, and my answer is that Abraham Lincoln?” If your answer is no, and you are not closely associated with the politician in question, think, try again. Cults of personality are, by nature, un-American.
So back to polls and how they do it and not work.
First of all, 62 percent of the country, said someone other than these two avatars of partisan warfare. Bill Gates, Pope Francis, the Dalai Lama and a gallimaufry of other came for many of the mentioned, but not concentrated support either of America’s most famous politicians – two of only a handful of people known in every household in the country.
So, what this poll means, you tell us? Certainly not, who are the “most admired people” is among Americans, there would probably also belong to a class of people, not a Person. Fathers, firefighters, doctors, soldiers, teachers, police, etc. Nor does it tell us, what are the qualities Americans admire in men.
It is the research equivalent of someone waking up from a sound sleep and demanding, “name your favorite movie star!”
What it does is clicks to generate. It is the kind of polling that the waves Can you believe the flag is a red to the bull of public opinion and says, “it is!?” And if you do, click and read further, you will find a survey that not only do not live up to the title, but is not at all in line with your own experience.
There is nothing wrong with the methodology of the survey. And the survey is certainly correct, as far as it could, under such a stupid premise. But it is the way that research is packaged and offered, not the damage.
That is why we are so picky when it comes to political votes, and so careful about the way we discuss.
First, we have the choice of surveys to be carried out the right way to live interviews with landline and cell phone users, non-partisan, timely, adequate sample size, with corresponding demographic components, etc. – but also that we do not over hype or draw invalid conclusions. This is one of the reasons why we are so large, the values on average, and the viewing of trends over time.
We are us. to hundreds of surveys over the next 10 months Maybe it is not included. Maybe one that you hate, makes the cut. But they are only polls – small snapshots of public opinion in a moment of time. We rely on you to help us, good forecasts, but they are only a part of the political reporting as a whole.
And how they respond to surveys such as the one discussed above – the overpriced new year’s eve parties in the research of public opinion, try to keep all that in perspective. The hangover just isn’t worth it.
THE RULES OF THE GAME: IN NAME ONLY
“Under the confusion of names, it was a simple task to transfer to a Republic observations to a democracy only; and among others, the observation that it can never be established but among a small number of people living in a small compass of territory.” – James Madison, Federalist No. 14
TIME-OUT: PUZZLE, MEMORIES
Columbus [Ohio] dispatch: “Although external sources of false information such as” fake news ” and targeted disinformation campaigns, a lot of attention today, current research at the Ohio State University shows, we could misremember information all on our own. In a recent study, which found the state of Ohio researchers that, if given accurate statistics about a controversial issue, people will pay more likely to misremember to come up with your own beliefs. Then, when the researchers study participants gave accurate information, and asked them to convey it to others, the information, grew more and more different, as it was passed from person to person. … Jason Coronel, an assistant professor of communication at Ohio State [says] … [p]eople tend to think of their memories as just a video recording device… But a lot of research in psychology shows memory doesn’t work that way. Instead, think of memory like a puzzle, he said — sometimes, you’re missing a few pieces, or you have pieces of several boxes dumped on the same table.”
Flag on the game? – Email us at HALFTIMEREPORT@FOXNEWS.COM with your tips, comments, or questions.
Biden: 26.2 points (no change from last wk.)
Sanders: 18.6 points (no change from last wk.)
Warren: 16.2 points (no change from last wk.)
Buttigieg: 9.4 points (no change from last wk.)
Bloomberg: 5.2 points (no change from last wk.)
[Averages NBC News/WSJ, CNN, Quinnipiac University, USA Today/Suffolk University and NPR/PBS/Marist include:.]
TRUMP JOB PERFORMANCE
Average Approval: 43.8 Percent
The average of the rejection: 51.4 percent
Net Rating: -7.6 Per Cent
Change from a week ago: no change
[Average, includes: NBC/WSJ: 44% approve, reject – 54%; CNBC: 40% approve – 49% reject; CNN: 44% approve – 52% oppose; Quinnipiac University: 43% approve, reject – 52%; USA Today/Suffolk University: 48% approve, reject 50%.]
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WARNING SIGNS FOR WARREN FUNDRAISING
NYT: “Senator Elizabeth Warren‘s slip in the year 2020, primary surveys was accompanied by a drop in donations, your campaign setting is a rare public goal: the goal is to raise $20 million in the fourth quarter of 2019 ends Tuesday, or about 20 percent less than what they raised in the previous three-month period. The former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr, meanwhile, has rebounded from a weak third quarter in which he raised only $15.7 million and spent $2 million more than he took. Now his campaign is trying to assert his frontrunner status in the Democratic primaries, pushing in the last 48 hours of the year to post ” our biggest Fundraising quarter yet,’ as Mr. Biden wrote in an E-Mail on Sunday, by an increase of $21.5 million he raised last spring. The shift in the financial fortunes of … illustrate the unsettled nature of the Democratic presidential campaign on the way to the year 2020 … in addition to fighting for position in the top-to strengthen the League of polling and addiction, their treasures before the final sprint to the Iowa Caucasus and beyond.”
Buttigieg meets Biden’s ‘judgment’ on Iraq – AP: “democratic presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg called on Sunday, former Vice-President, Joe Biden, voting to authorize the war in Iraq part of the nation’s ‘worst foreign policy decision” of the millennial mayors life. Buttigieg, the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, responds to the question of how his foreign policy experience, compared to other’ in the Democratic race, especially Biden, who was a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, as the United States entered the war. “This is not an example of why years in Washington, the same as the judgment’ Buttigieg, is always the program ‘Iowa Press Iowa Public television-said during the shooting, according to a transcript. “He’s supported the worst foreign policy decision the United States in my life, that was the decision for Iraq to invade.’ … Biden, who was elected in Delaware to be represented in the Senate in October 2002 for the resolution to authorize the use of force in Iraq. … As a candidate for President in 2007, Biden said he would support the legislation to repeal the resolution, which remained in force Biden-campaign comments no comment on Buttigieg.”
Cries bring Trump tropics to Biden event – Fox News: “Ex-Vice President Joe Biden was interrupted by a series of intermediate call him ‘creepy’ and ‘perverted’, during a campaign event in Milford, N. H., on Sunday evening. Speaking shortly after Biden have begun, a man in the back of the room threw him to act inappropriately, yelling, ” don’t touch children, you pervert.’ “This is not a trump rally,” a nervous Biden fired back. “This is a democracy.’ A woman then began to quid-pro Joe sing ‘, before another participant called for in the 2020 hopeful, inquiring about the business of Biden in the Ukraine. ‘I have 21 years and released my tax returns, how many has yours? What to hide it?’ Biden responded. The last two hecklers,” comments apparently referred to Biden’s left in the Ukraine, the President of the Trump referred to in his 25. July phone call with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, a call that eventually led to the trump card of the prosecution.”
Prime suspect: Bernie a staff complaint about the use of Amazon – WaPo: “sen Bernie Sanders often attacks Amazon on the choice of fight, swear, break the online-retail giant, if he is chosen, in which its treatment of workers and decrying his ability to pay no Federal taxes on billions in profits. That is why passionate dissent broke out within the Sanders ‘ campaign at the beginning of this year about the purchase of large quantities of supplies through Amazon, according to five people with knowledge of the situation. Carli Stevenson, a senior, Sanders ‘ campaign aide in New Hampshire, the concerns directly with the national campaign, the officers and struck with another company, three of the people said. Another New Hampshire researcher, state political Director , William Bateson, also expressed opposition to the use of Amazon, according to two people with knowledge of the situation. Stevenson and Bateson declined to comment for this story.”
BLOOMY TRUMP ERODED LEAD TO THE GENERAL ELECTIONS CASH
NYT: “…Michael R. Bloomberg is trying — in his way — spending in the millions each week in an online advertising attack, led by the polling and data that he and his advisors believe, offer unique insights into the President’s weaknesses. The effort, the targeting of seven battleground States, where polls show, Mr. Trump is likely to be competitive to be in November, only a part of an advertising campaign that is unrivaled in scope and scale. On Facebook and Google alone, where Mr. Bloomberg is the most focused on attacks on the President, he has spent $18 million on ads over the last month, according to the acronym, a digital messaging company working with Democrats. This is on top of the $128 million in the Bloomberg campaign, on TV advertising spending, according to advertising Analytics, an independent consultancy company, the projects that Mr. Bloomberg is probably, the $300 million to $400 million for advertising in all media before the Super-Tuesday primaries in early March.”
Goes big in Texas – Texas tribune: “democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg is the ramp-up its efforts in Texas, with plans to build a state operation, which his campaign says is unmatched by other persons in the primary field. In a first announcement, together with The Texas Tribune, his campaign said it was a Texas opens headquarters in Houston, and 16 branch offices in the whole of the rest of the state, between now and the 3. March primary. The offices are distributed in the Houston area, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin, East Texas, San Antonio, El Paso, Laredo, McAllen, and Killeen. Also, the campaign ” the first Texas hires…”
CROSS-PARTY LOVE, SUPPORT FOR CANCER-STRICKEN JOHN LEWIS
WaPo: “Rep. John Lewis, a civil rights icon, known for the promotion of voting rights, announced on Sunday that he has stage 4 pancreatic cancer and vowed to fight like he fought for racial equality and other human rights in his life. Lewis (D-Ga.), anyone who has served in Congress since 1987, said that doctors detected the disease this month at a routine doctor’s visit and the subsequent tests. He said he later received the confirmation of the diagnosis. A percent of patients live five years after a diagnosis of stage 4 pancreatic cancer, according to Johns Hopkins Medicine. The average patient with this diagnosis live for about a year. Pancreatic cancer is the third most common cause of death from cancer in the year 2019, according to the National Cancer Institute.”
Meadows surprise retirement benefits friend of the family – Politically: “Rep. Mark Meadows‘ shock retirement — has shown that only 30 hours before the deadline in North Carolina — has roiled some Republicans in the state, the suspect, he timed his announcement to benefit a friend of his wife. The four-term Congressman to leave the house for a yet undefined role with President Donald Trump, a decision published he revealed in an interview with POLITICO Playbook, the 5:30 p.m. on Dec. 19, before the deadline at noon on Dec. 20. Later that day, came to start a campaign, the of Lynda Bennett, a local GOP activist, real estate agent, is friendly with Debbie meadows, the Congressman’s wife, according to sources who know both women. Careful Republicans in the state, speculated quickly that she had previously stood Meadows’ rest. Online records showed her campaign website domain was registered on Oct. 28 of a Scott meadows, which is apparently the brother of the Congressman.”
Pergram: In the year 2020, DC is mainly about politics, not laws – Fox News
Former President Jimmy Carter gives the Church the first time after the November brain-surgery – AP
Biden says he might appoint Obama to the Supreme court – Fox Business
AUDIBLE: BON APPÉTIT
“Tell him to come, and I will give him some dessert in the White house.” – Former Vice-President Joe Biden‘s answer, if you are asked about sen Bernie Sanders‘ claim that President Trump “to eat (Biden’s) lunch.”
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EWE have TO GO UP A CUP size
UPI: “veterinarians in new Zealand, an Operation, or worse still said that a sheep has been spared with severely damaged and saggy udders, when it was equipped and designed with a bra for people. Dr. Sarah Clews, a veterinarian at Franklin animal doctors Lifestyle businesses, said Rose, romney ewe from a small farm in the Auckland area, suffered damage to their udders’ suspensory ligaments, if you began with the production of a high volume of milk during pregnancy with triplets. ‘If this happens, the udder can be so deeply traumatised that it can be on the floor. Unless the situation can be corrected, it is a case for “euthanasia”,’ Clews stuff said.co.nz. Clews recommend, Rose the owner is trying to prevent the support of their udder with a bra that requires surgery to repair the ligaments or remove your udder.”
AND NOW, A WORD FROM CHARLES…
“In the calculus of nuclear deterrence, the mobility, the inviolability is guaranteed. (The enemy can’t find and can’t separate so, is a mobile missile.)” – Charles Krauthammer (1950-2018) writes in the Washington Post on November 6. July, 2017.
Chris Stirewalt , the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. FOX News mid-term report in your Inbox every day wants? You can register here.